Win rate = winning trades ÷ total closed trades × 100. Count every closed trade in the denominator — wins, losses and break-evens — and call a trade a win only if its net P&L after fees is above zero. 30 winners out of 50 closed trades is a 60% win rate.
On its own, win rate says nothing about profit. This page shows how to calculate it correctly, how to pair it with expectancy and the break-even win rate, and how many trades you need before the number means anything.
Try it live: the free win rate and expectancy calculator computes win rate, expectancy and profit factor from your results.
The win rate formula
Win rate (%) = winning trades ÷ total closed trades × 100
| Component | What to count | Example |
|---|---|---|
| Winning trades | Closed trades with net P&L above zero after commissions and fees | 30 |
| Total closed trades | Every closed trade: wins, losses and break-evens. Open trades are excluded | 50 |
| Win rate | 30 ÷ 50 × 100 | 60% |
In a spreadsheet, with net P&L per closed trade in column P (open trades left blank):
- Win rate:
=COUNTIF(P:P,">0")/COUNT(P:P) - Scratch rate:
=COUNTIF(P:P,0)/COUNT(P:P)
COUNT only counts numeric cells, so blank open trades are skipped automatically. Format the cell as a percentage.
What counts as a win
Most disagreements about win rate come from counting, not arithmetic. Pick these rules once and keep them:
- Net, not gross. A $6 gross gain with $8 of round-trip costs is a loss. Use P&L after commissions and fees.
- Break-evens stay in the denominator as non-wins. Leaving them out inflates the number. Track the scratch rate separately: ten scratches in 50 trades usually means exits need work.
- One trade, not one fill. Scaling in or out of a position is still one trade with one result.
- Same rules everywhere. Check how your journal treats break-evens and partial exits so your hand calculation matches its dashboard.
Why a high win rate is not enough
Win rate is half of the picture. The other half is how much you make when you win compared with how much you lose when you don’t. Expectancy combines the two:
Expectancy per trade = (win rate × average win) − (loss rate × average loss)
Trader A wins 9 of 10 trades at $50 each, then lets one loser run to −$500.
- Expectancy = 0.9 × $50 − 0.1 × $500 = $45 − $50 = −$5 per trade
- Ten trades: 9 × $50 − $500 = −$50, despite a 90% win rate.
Trader B wins 4 of 10 trades at $400 each and cuts losers at −$100.
- Expectancy = 0.4 × $400 − 0.6 × $100 = $160 − $60 = +$100 per trade
- Ten trades: 4 × $400 − 6 × $100 = +$1,000, with a 40% win rate.
Trader B is right less often and makes far more money. That is why win rate should never be reported without average win and average loss next to it.
The break-even win rate
If your average win is R times your average loss, the win rate you need just to break even (before costs) is:
Break-even win rate = 1 ÷ (1 + R)
| Average win ÷ average loss (R) | Break-even win rate |
|---|---|
| 0.5 | 66.7% |
| 1.0 | 50.0% |
| 1.5 | 40.0% |
| 2.0 | 33.3% |
| 3.0 | 25.0% |
Compare your actual win rate with the row that matches your R. A 45% win rate is comfortably profitable at R = 2 and a losing strategy at R = 1. Commissions push every break-even figure a little higher, which matters most for scalpers with small targets — see the worked cost example in what is scalping.
Video: The Organic Chemistry Tutor works through risk-reward ratio, break-even win rate and expectancy with the formulas on screen.
How many trades you need before win rate means anything
A win rate from a small sample has a wide margin of error. A standard approximation for the 95% range is ±1.96 × √(p × (1 − p) ÷ n), where p is your win rate and n is the number of trades. For a measured 55% win rate:
| Trades in the sample | Likely range of the true win rate |
|---|---|
| 20 | 33% – 77% (±22 points) |
| 50 | 41% – 69% (±14 points) |
| 100 | 45% – 65% (±10 points) |
| 200 | 48% – 62% (±7 points) |
| 500 | 51% – 59% (±4 points) |
At 50 trades you cannot yet tell a 45% strategy from a 65% one. That is why the usual advice is at least 50–100 trades on one unchanged set of rules before you judge a setup, and why a hot week proves very little.
Segment your win rate to find your edge
An account-wide number blends everything you do. Split it by:
- Setup — does the breakout outperform the reversal?
- Time of day — open, midday, last hour.
- Instrument or market — stocks vs futures, tech vs energy.
- Market condition — trending vs range-bound days.
For example, a trader with a 52% overall win rate might find 78% on morning trades in tech stocks and 31% on afternoon energy trades. Each segment needs its own sample-size check, so keep tagging consistently and let the counts build. A journal does this filtering automatically; in a spreadsheet, a pivot table does the same job.
Frequently asked questions
What is a good win rate in trading?
There is no single number. A scalper with small targets may need 65–70% to cover costs; a trend follower whose winners are three times their losers can profit at 30%. Compare your win rate with your break-even win rate, not with other traders’.
Should I include break-even trades?
Yes, in the denominator as non-wins. Report the scratch rate next to the win rate if break-evens are common.
Are win rate, hit rate and strike rate the same thing?
Usually, yes — all three mean the share of trades that close at a profit. Check how a platform defines a “win” before comparing numbers across tools.
Do open trades count?
No. Only closed trades have a final result. Count an open trade once it is closed.
Related reading
- Win rate and expectancy calculator — plug in your own numbers
- Loss ratio formula — gross loss vs gross profit, per setup
- Equity curve simulator — what drawdowns to expect from your win rate and R
- What is paper trading — build a 50-trade sample without risking money
- Trading journal Excel template — spreadsheet win-rate formulas
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