Enter win rate, reward:risk and risk per trade to see 1,000 simulated equity curves, drawdowns and losing streaks.
Free · no sign-up · Runs in your browser · Last updated 13 October 2026
The short version
Same stats, different order, very different curves. Size your risk for the worst 10% of paths, not the median.
Risk compounds: each trade risks the chosen % of current equity, so dollar risk shrinks in a drawdown and grows after a run-up. Use win rate and average R from at least 30–50 of your own closed trades.
An equity curve simulator takes your win rate, average reward-to-risk and risk per trade, and plays them out in 1,000 random trade orders. Instead of one line you get the range of account paths your statistics can produce: the median result, how deep drawdowns get in the worst 10% of paths, and how long losing streaks run. Traders use it to size risk for the bad case, not the average.
Each path is a fresh random sequence of wins and losses at your win rate. The chart shades the middle 50% and 90% of paths at every trade; drawdowns and losing streaks are measured on each full path, then ranked.
| Inputs | 55% wins · 2R · 1% risk · 100 trades · $10,000 |
|---|---|
| Expectancy per trade | +0.65R |
| Median ending balance | $18,906 |
| 90% of paths end between | $14,889 and $24,006 |
| Typical max drawdown | −5% |
| Max drawdown, worst 1 in 10 | −7.8% |
| Longest losing streak, 1 in 20 | 8 losses |
A clear edge, and still a run of eight straight losses in one path in twenty. Change risk to 2% and the worst-1-in-10 drawdown roughly doubles to about −15%.
An equity curve simulator draws each trade at random using your win rate: a win adds risk % × reward-to-risk to the account and a loss subtracts risk %. Repeating that for the chosen number of trades gives one equity curve; repeating the whole run 1,000 times gives the range of outcomes your statistics can produce.
Plan for the worst-10% figure, not the median. With a 55% win rate, 2:1 reward-to-risk and 1% risk per trade over 100 trades, the typical maximum drawdown is about 5%, but one path in ten goes past about 8%. At 2% risk per trade both roughly double, to about 10% and 15%.
No. The simulation assumes every trade is independent and that your win rate and reward-to-risk stay constant, with no commissions or slippage. Real trading has changing conditions and losses that cluster, so treat the worst-case figures as the minimum to plan for, not a prediction.
TradeReview calculates win rate and average R from your closed trades, so the numbers you simulate are the ones you actually trade. Free forever, no card.